WAS What Adults are Saying about a Tightening Race as a Triple Gaslight
For $$$ the forthcoming loser grifts, the winner “panics” and the media pimp
This communication is best understood in knowing, as stated here and here, Kamala Harris will be America’s 47th President.
There’s nothing worse than maniacal media confronting a topic of importance that can’t be felt, chewed, digested and then discarded within 48 hours. Because news must so often“break” when it doesn’t, well then, that’s not news or at least not the “best” news wanted to keep audiences attentive.
In the “breaking” tradition, as example, residents of the Phoenix metro are beginning to exit a summer like no other. For over four consecutive months the temperature there has risen to over 100 degrees daily including 21 consecutive days of record-temps ending in mid-October. Along the way the “heat” has topped the majority of known records for intensity and all for longevity of intensity. On these days local broadcasters take this phenomenon to indicate “weather alerts” with all the breathless anxiety of something that may be breaking—be it heat records, street pavement or broadcaster’s brains. Eventually the urgency of this finds only deaf ears and glazed eyeballs—in part because the human body can only do so much to cool itself. But also in part because if everything is urgent all the time (or at least four consecutive months), then soon, nothing is urgent.
A curious parallel has been seen in recent days about projected outcomes to the Presidential election. The common editorial trope this week suggests that Trump has “tightened” an already close race while the Harris campaign sweats bullets and takes “risky” moves like appearing on Fox News. This has been a prominent story line across multiple platforms. But there is plenty to question whether any of this is more “breaking” news especially since many in the adult world can plainly see all the china in grandma’s hutch looks intact and lovely.
Just because an election is measured as close doesn’t mean it can’t also be stable. Both can certainly be true. Nor does it dispel that stability can be measured repeatedly—say weeks (which in this case is also true). For over 60 days now, we continue to witness Presidential polling outcomes that have been remarkably constant. Things less than three weeks out look nearly identical as the end of Dem’s convention. If the election were held this instant one should expect 277 electoral votes won by Harris. Of course this will be greeted by who knows what legal challenges from the Trump campaign—just another parting reminder so that we appear again a third-world nation.
Even statistics students with “D’s” understand the notion of regression toward the mean. The more something is measured the more “static” it becomes. It is hard to imagine a Presidential campaign that has been polled or measured more than the current contest. These repeated measures are yielding highly static results. Indeed these repeated measures also show a very close contest, one where narrowly the leader is consistently clear. While it is mathematically possible for all of this to be wrong it’s unlikely. This is understood by operatives in both campaigns and at least a few polling pros buried in the bowels of Main Stream Media (MSM). But for vested reasons all three entities continue to squawk as though the pending vote is an absolute coin-flipper (it is not). What might be motivating such claims?
First, in the Trump campaign the candidate has been consistently committed to two goals this election: Amass as much money and buy as much time as possible. The cash need is driven by both avarice and the practical consequences of heavy legal fees and losing court judgments already totaling nearly $600M. Even against the advice of campaign advisors he has pursued this tact religiously and for it has already secured the “skim” from the Republican National Committee through his daughter-in-law (kinda like the Kansas City bosses in Casino). A very curious campaign schedule has continued with recent stops in Colorado and California (two states he can’t win) and Iowa (a state he can’t lose) and then where he played an on-stage disc jockey instead of fielding town hall questions! He seems to just be jacking-up selective voter pockets for more grift—or worse—is going over the edge in real time.
The time is needed for more maneuvering—to avoid sentencing, appeals, more trials—and essentially a just comeuppance he is due after four years inter-breeding his long felonious ways with the Oval Office. If like some, you believe two (three?) assassination attempts and US intelligence intercepts of Iranian plans for the same has deterred Trump’s desire for victory, then it follows gas-lighting us as the “clear leader” is all that’s left. With another electoral loss on the horizon his options are narrowing about his preeminent needs.
For media its interests are not well-served in reporting reliably close electoral results reliably! If polls churn out data reams where things today are the same as yesterday and the day before, then news sure isn’t breaking or much of anything else. Borrrring. Instead MSM turns the process on its head and finds so-called “outlier” results. Evidently fourth level data kernels are often up to the task and just hefty enough so that more breaking might ensue. In a few other professions there is a name for this type of overstated sleight of hand—it’s called “pimping.”
In short, MSM takes the antithesis of the “proponderance of data” as evidence of something newsworthy. It has to. How long can repeats of “too close to call” be mouthed? Factual or not that’s no way to build a Election Night audience as we approach the zenith of the 2024 Mothra vs. Godzilla political battle.
Then, amid all its “sweating”, even the Harris camp has paused enough to offer at least “gaslight-lite” whereby poll tightening is a rallying cry for more money. As part of an unprecedented $3B campaign one would think there still is enough dough to get all staffers through the drive-thru until early November. But evidently not so and only a few dollars more from us all will cinch the desired outcome.
Like a second plate-passing at Sunday Mass it seems the Dems would like for you to kick-in more to a close result and difficult Senate races in Ohio, Montana or elsewhere. By all means in a race this close the Harris campaign must be vigilant until the polls close. But because the available gas and the light are both there it can’t help itself. So with bigger fish to fry the Dems pause to round out a trifecta where both candidates are publicly claiming opposite their true standing and MSM breathlessly extols its flimsy data as something that could change western civilization. Wow!
For a campaign that seemingly started the same year Jody, Buffy and Cissy first appeared on Family Affair it’s not difficult to learn many observers are fatigued. Gas-lighting in our exercise of democracy is not new but just like that Phoenix weather, records of intensity and duration are being broken wily-nilly. Cynicism is bound to follow. Win, lose or draw where does this leave us come November 6th?
As usual my friend you are correct and add more factual detail.
John as usual, enjoy your commentary. A few thoughts with additional context:
1) Note that much of the "regression to the mean" is being driven by a new phenomenon: so-called "red wave" polls by firms with sketchy credentials that seem to be designed to produce the effect you describe (getting the MSM to report the race is tightening, when it is not). In PA alone, where I live, more than a dozen of these polls have dropped in recent weeks (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSg0CGn759Q).
2) What happens in the media is NOT what's happening on the ground. Exhibit A: the first day of early voting in Georgia eclipsed previous first-day turnout by nearly 2x, as in, the previous total was 154,000 and nearly 260,000 voted on the first day in 2024 (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/15/us/politics/georgia-early-voting.html).
3) Trump's GOTV effort (where races are REALLY won), is sucking wind. A few media stories on that: (https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/06/trumps-early-voting-00182611) and (https://apnews.com/article/trump-turning-point-voter-mobilization-musk-07286c2572b02aafefdda1cda093e788)
As a former journalist, I am completely dismayed by the way this electon is being covered by MSM, top to bottom.