WAS: What Adults are saying about the Trump Margin
Did Dem's need to replace Biden to lose so badly?
Donald Trump’s decisive electoral victory was surely possible as told by pre-game betting markets and prognosticators. But his margin of victory, particularly in the popular vote, was a mammoth surprise to many. After never having won a popular vote nor exceeding 47% of voters in previous contests Trump will carry this time a clear nationwide majority that might tally to be the most votes ever for a Presidential candidate.
The Tuesday morning odds one could get on such an outcome were surely long. After a free-wheeling, bumbling campaign where all voters had the opportunity to judge the Trump schtick, he outperformed expectations. Outperforming anything is simply a result of what is expected in relation to what is observed. No one, including those within his own campaign expected such a clear, comfortable and decisive victory. Preliminary data, at this hour, reveal the source of this surprise was Trump exuding strength in demographics that would have never been expected and added one more tally to the “down is up and up is down” world that is Trump politics.
In relation to 2020, an election contested in the midst of the COVID pandemic, Trump did the following in key voting sectors known essential to Harris’ chances. Relative to his performance against Joe Biden, with Blacks, Latinos and those under 30 he improved his result by six, six and eleven points respectively! Never has there been a version of the Democratic party that could overcome trends like these.
Tons of folks in the coming days, including this communication, will analyze, probe and explain what and how this happened about was presumed one of the most consequential and close Presidential Elections in modern history. For now the question is a simple one. Given the unorthodoxy by which Harris arrived in the race, could the donkey’s have done just as well by sticking with Joe Biden?
This is not a cruel or aimless query. Under the circumstances Kamala Harris ran a great campaign, seemingly, to achieve results leaving many just as morose as the morning after the Biden debate. With the outcome at hand, Dems must reflect hard about what, if anything, was gained with a mid-flight switch of candidates? So too they must question at what additional cost did they incur, among whom and with what lasting effect?
These items are far more consequential than mere bar room debates. For better or worse, it seems, the Democratic party has been electorally hollowed-out from the inside. Amid the immediate aftermath its natural to respond with more effort, more perspective, more whatever. But November 6th has brought the same slack-jaw motif as the morning after the debate debacle. Democrats are compelled to figure this out and quickly. The first order of business post-concession is to put down the shovel and get out of their own hole.