WAS: What Adults are Saying About the Middle East
Is a multi-regional war looming?
In a Presidential election year like no other it is quite possibly not even the most consequential matter in world affairs. As you read, forces are massing in the Middle East for something that could range anywhere from a sterile pissing contest to World War III.
The Hamas/Israeli conflict of some nine months continues for reasons not easily understood by eyes from the West. The brutal October attack required a swift and harsh response and it came. Then the world has watched in horror as the conflict got bogged down in a type of unbelievable warfare (is that redundant?) reminiscent of World War I from over 100 years ago. When our grandchildren one day ask us how we might let this happen, we already know the best we can do is offer a feckless shoulder shrug.
Walking the tightest of ropes President Biden has effectively massed international support for Israel without offering a blank check. In turn, Israeli Premier Netanyahu has cherry-picked his friends, and at times, made them enemies. His domestic political challenges were previously so severe that as the conflicts drags one can easily see his national power is tied to continuing the war. It is the type of shit show that we struggle to understand because, as it has been for millenia, a fundamentally religious conflict.
But the American paradox of being so tight with Israel means it is virtually certain to export the region’s scrapes to our shores. Biden and his masterful Secretary of State Anthony Blinken have been working diplomatic overtime to get the original conflict stopped before it expands into something bigger. They have also carried a big stick in poking Israel to reason. All the while Iran and Lebanon have been punched in the nose while the remaining Arab states watch with nervous tension. If it sounds like an impossible situation its because it is, and has always been that way.
Meanwhile, a cornered Putin sits waiting for US election outcomes that will show what path he must pursue. An unfavorable outcome will surely find him considering options that fall more on the “war” than “peace” side of the continuum. This should not come as a surprise but the interplay of all the above means November may be too long for him to wait.
Even as the majestic Paris Olympics engage us a pause to the urgency of conflict is nowhere to be seen. Hell, even Russia did that in 2022 when waiting for the winter Olympics to end before launching he Ukraine invasion. Since, that country’s backward aspirations and Netanyahu’s home field mess have invited these two knuckleheads to merge in a bias for fight. It is either all they know or, all they might do in the hopes saving their own skin.
When you add this up it’s plausible to suggest the importance of our election may not (for one of the few times in recent history) be the most important thing happening. That is an odd knife that slices in two ways where only one is favorable. In the middle of what seems a titanic election struggle, America may be relegated to page two. Let us hope that is not a sign of things to come.