WAS What Adults are Saying about Surviving Poll Madness
A reader shortcut to survive media yapping until the election.
It was previously reported here and here the heavy dependency media platforms place on election polling data as a primary content builder. To many what was once the world of journalism and what is now known as content creation remains a distinction without a difference. Such morphing has created “news” content with low clarifying value by some mashed-up quasi-professionals who might best be termed “journalcrats”. In turn, well-intended folks reaching out to presumed journalists to be broadly informed on relevant election issues are left dry—teased with a touch of informational sweetness—but not nearly enough to be well-informed.
This information-flow train is track-jumping frequently and polling data are at the center of it as never before. As though the ‘ 24 election didn’t have enough oddity we are headlong into a campaign where summarizing presumed, self-reported behavior intent is the primary topic driving newsroom coverage at all levels. This has swamped all other issues—and that is saying something when you consider the “uniqueness” of the current Presidential race. Like never before “polling” as a principal campaign story has simply spun out of control.
It was also reported earlier these would-be journalcrats are not well-suited as arbiters of what polling data infers and its interpretive context. This invites a polenta narrative where “results” are reported while simultaneously qualified as not necessarily indicative of anything. Really! Case in point: In a major western media market one recent morning a conventional anchor revealed that new polling showed Harris up five points nationally. Seconds later “headlines” were reported from the “newsroom” (a desk set about 25 feet from the anchor meant to imply diligent new gathering). The first “headline” was national polling shows no leader for the office of President! Two guys, 25 feet apart contradicted one another within a span of about 45 seconds! There’s a million reasons why TV teammates might not be on the same page but consider two big reasons that don’t apply:
That a five-point difference can be explained by margin of error (unless requiring an extraordinary high confidence level), and
that journalcrat talking heads (as stated before) are fluent in the business of reporting polls.
And so it goes.
But you, the reader, have suffered too much (after all you’re reading this). More head-spinning reports will continue to assail your sensibilities, This communication is offered as a form of protection—at least for the next six weeks. Below in simple-to-follow points is a method to help cut to the bottom line in a Presidential election that remains very close. You can apply these with whatever news or polling sources you desire and a state map of electoral votes will come in handy. No other tools are needed to help you get clear, up-to-the-minute projections by considering the following:
Donald Trump cannot win the popular vote. This was the case in 2016 when he narrowly won the Electoral college, again in 2020 by an even larger margin and he will encounter the same fate in 2024. Of course, popular vote does not elect the President. Trump never had the majority of votes then and he sure doesn’t have them now. If another Trump Presidency happens it will be without a majority vote mandate. That means IGNORE national voting polls. For better or worse they, at the level of analysis wanted by lay folk, are simply not relevant.
Learn the so-called seven “swing states”: Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. For all important electoral votes these are the only states really in play though the reliably “red” states of Texas and Florida are showing weaker than usual Trump support. But focus only on these key swing states. With your electoral map in hand showing probable outcomes for all other states manipulate the swing state votes to find a path to 270 for your favorite candidate with the following guidelines
Set Pennsylvania aside. It is the largest state (in electoral votes) with the closest current margin. For the GOP especially it is Gettysburg and The Battle of the Bulge rolled into one. In other words efforts to widen gaps will be very hard fought. If you can get your candidate to 270 without PA go relax, open a bottle of wine and sleep easy.
When manipulating other states always move North Carolina and Arizona together. Maybe for the purposes of this exercise create the fictional place of “Carolzona” with 27 electoral votes! Similar circumstances in both states means they are going to break the same direction. Down-ballot candidates are pulling a heavy drag to the top of the GOP column. Already party operatives have pulled money from both places to use elsewhere. Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake and North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson are both in a death-roll with a gator right now. Either the Trump campaign will find a way around this or it won’t. But they won’t split.
Monitor what, if any, additional states start swinging. As of this writing Texas and/or Florida are the most likely to trend this way. If this happens the GOP may have problems far bigger than a Trump loss. Alternatively, if Harris starts showing up in New Mexico or even tiny New Hampshire it could be curtains for Kamala.
If you need one final arbiter return again to the Princeton Election Consortium especially the three, right column graphs that estimate President, House and Senate winners. Most days you will find Harris our new President, the Dems with the House and the GOP with the Senate. Little macro evidence exists that a different outcome is coming but daily updates offer excellent trending clues.
Use these hints to lift yourself above the fray of the babbling, endless poll madness. Everyone is on edge because the times and the stakes have converged in an unprecedented way. That’s how history is made. But that doesn’t mean you have to gain an ulcer or lose your mind. Vote, tally your wins and losses and then appropriately prep for a coming passage of power. One way or the other something is going to happen we’ve never seen.